Irrational exuberance in Alabama

If I had a dollar for every item I've read this week about a new wave in American politics — signalled by the victory of Doug Jones in Alabama — I could afford better wine at dinner. But it just ain't so.

Jones' election was a fluke, made possible only by the horror of his opponent. If Jones had run against the more moderate (less extreme?) Luther Strange, who had been appointed by the Governor of Alabama to fill the vacancy when Jeff Sessions became Attorney General, Jones would not have won. And assuming the Republican opponent for Jones in November 2020 is no clone of Roy Moore, the Republicans are almost certain to reclaim Jones' seat. It's simple math: white folks are about 70% of registered voters in Alabama, and under normal circumstances 80% of white Alabamians vote Republican.

But circumstances this week were not normal. All of the following statements about Jones' victory are true:

1. Jones won because black Alabamians had high turnout.
2. Jones won because white Alabamians had low turnout.
3. Jones won because just enough white Alabamians trashed their votes by writing in.
4. Jones won because just enough white Alabamians — mainly women, residents of the four major cities (Birmingham, Mobile, Huntsville, and Montgomery), and residents of the university cities (Tuscaloosa and Auburn) — voted for him.

None of these four, individually, would have put Jones over the top. Some Democrats anxious to reverse their loss of the White House in 2016 are reading too much into Jones' victory. For #1, black Alabamians have had high turnout before but even then, there simply aren't enough of them to be a decisive factor in the absence of something else. For #2, #3, and #4, one can speculate about the cause but in all likelihood it was specific to Moore. General trends in Alabama voting remain unchanged.

I did read assertions that white millennials in Alabama voted Democratic. Perhaps that's true, but I've been reading for 10 years that millennials and demographics will give Democrats the edge nation-wide. It hasn't happened yet. Democrats need an answer that's better than "wait 'til next year". They need solid candidates with solid messages, delivered through solid campaign strategies and underwritten by solid finances. There are no short cuts.